Saturday, April 24, 2010

Liars, damn liars, and people who talk to their friends

I'm putting this post here rather than at the hobby-related one because it is a bit rantish and doesn't really add blog value to that site.
Over at Wargames Factory there's this thing called the Liberty League where perspective clients can vote on upcoming ranges.  Nice idea, but it has turned into a tiger by the tail as Wargames Factory finds themselves in the unenviable position of having League members push for ranges that realistically have limited sales potential in the outside world (I'm talking to you, 6mm robot enthusiasts.  The idea that WF should've done your range before sci-fi greatcoats puts you in the same category as people who find spoiled milk in the fridge and say to their friends "smell this.")
What's worse, you have on the forums individuals prognosticating the viability of ranges based on statements like "I asked all my friends down at the gaming store, and only one of them was really interested in this."
Okay, time for a little realism.  Mrs. WQRobb is a statistician by education.  Her father worked on JFK's presidential campaign developing the first country-wide polling model to understand people's interests.  So let's say that I have some passing familiarity with the subject of polling.
To get a real grasp of the greater masses' interests or opinions, you literally need to poll hundreds upon hundreds of people before you can rise above statistical abnormalities.  Thousands would really be better, but I get that it is a small hobby.  But asking around your friends, a store, or even the people who a) know Wargames Factory, b) go to their site, and c) bother participating in the oft-histrionic Liberty League doesn't tell you squat.

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